Tracking the Transit Divide: A Multilevel Modelling Approach of Urban Inequalities and Train Ridership Disparities in Chicago

Using a multilevel modelling approach, this study investigates the impact of urban inequalities on changes to rail ridership across Chicago's "L” stations during the pandemic, the mass vaccination rollout, and the full reopening of the city. Initially believed to have an equal impact, COVID-19 disproportionally impacted the ability of lower socioeconomic status (SES) neighbourhoods' to adhere to non-pharmaceutical interventions: working-from-home and social distancing. We find that "L” stations in predominately Black or African American and Hispanic or Latino neighbourhoods with high industrial land-use recorded the smallest behavioural change. The maintenance of higher public transport use at these stations is likely to have exacerbated existing health inequalities, worsening disparities in users' risk of exposure, infection rates, and mortality rates. This study also finds that the vaccination rollout and city reopening did not significantly increase the number of users at stations in higher vaccinated, higher private vehicle ownership neighbourhoods, even after a year into the pandemic. A better understanding of the spatial and socioeconomic determinants of changes in ridership behaviour is crucial for policymakers in adjusting service routes and frequencies that will sustain reliant neighbourhoods' access to essential services, and to encourage trips at stations which are the most impacted to revert the trend of declining public transport use.

How consumer behaviours changed in response to COVID-19 lockdown stringency measures: A case study of Walmart.

Walmart is a major player in the US retail sector and was one of the grocery corporations that bucked the trend of declining retail sales at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Particularly in the initial stages of the pandemic, governance priorities focussed on restricting the movement of people and closing non-essential retailers and service providers to slow the spread of the virus and keep people safe. This paper investigates the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions, in the form of lockdown stringency measures, on consumer purchasing behaviours for essential goods over the onset of the pandemic. Focussing on both instore and online sales outcomes for Walmart in the US, we examine changes between pre-pandemic trends in two different sales outcomes, sales transactions and total spend, and trends in 2020. We then employ a series of multi-level regression models to estimate the impact that imposed stringency measures had on these sales outcomes, at both national and state level. Results indicate that nationally consumers were making fewer, larger physical shopping trips and huge increases in online sales was seen ubiquitously across the country. Novel and expansive insights from such a wide-spread retailer, such as Walmart, can help retailers, stakeholders and policy makers understand changing consumption trends to inform business strategies and resilience planning for the future. Furthermore, this study highlighted the value of examining spatial trends in sales outcomes and hopes to influence greater consideration of this in future research.

Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in receiving high-income countries.

Previous studies have examined the impact of COVID-19 on mortality and fertility. However, little is known about the effect of the pandemic on constraining international migration. We use Eurostat and national statistics data on immigration and ARIMA time-series models to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on immigration flows in 15 high-income countries by forecasting their counterfactual levels in 2020, assuming no pandemic, and comparing these estimates with observed immigration counts. We then explore potential driving forces, such as stringency measures and increases in unemployment moderating the extent of immigration change. Our results show that immigration declined in all countries, except in Finland. Yet, significant cross-national variations exist. Australia (60%), Spain (45%) and Sweden (36%) display the largest declines, while immigration decreased by between 15% and 30% in seven countries, and by less than 15% in four nations where results were not statistically significant. International travel restrictions, mobility restrictions and stay-at-home requirements exhibit a relatively strong relationship with declines in immigration, although countries with similar levels of stringency witnessed varying levels of immigration decline. Work and school closings and unemployment show no relationship with changes in immigration.

Urban exodus? Understanding human mobility in Britain during the COVID-19 pandemic using Meta-Facebook data.

Existing empirical work has focused on assessing the effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions on human mobility to contain the spread of COVID-19. Less is known about the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped the spatial patterns of population movement within countries. Anecdotal evidence of an urban exodus from large cities to rural areas emerged during early phases of the pandemic across western societies. Yet, these claims have not been empirically assessed. Traditional data sources, such as censuses offer coarse temporal frequency to analyse population movement over infrequent time intervals. Drawing on a data set of 21 million observations from Meta-Facebook users, we aim to analyse the extent and evolution of changes in the spatial patterns of population movement across the rural-urban continuum in Britain over an 18-month period from March 2020 to August 2021. Our findings show an overall and sustained decline in population movement during periods of high stringency measures, with the most densely populated areas reporting the largest reductions. During these periods, we also find evidence of higher-than-average mobility from high-density population areas to low-density areas, lending some support to claims of large-scale population movements from large cities. Yet, we show that these trends were temporary. Overall mobility levels trended back to precoronavirus levels after the easing of nonpharmaceutical interventions. Following these interventions, we found a reduction in movement to low-density areas and a rise in mobility to high-density agglomerations. Overall, these findings reveal that while COVID-19 generated shock waves leading to temporary changes in the patterns of population movement in Britain, the resulting vibrations have not significantly reshaped the prevalent structures in the national pattern of population movement. As of 2021, internal population movements sit at an intermediate level between those observed pre- and early phases of the pandemic.

Rural revival? The rise in internal migration to rural areas during the COVID-19 pandemic. Who moved and Where?

During the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, anecdotal evidence of a "rural revival" emerged mirroring the "urban exodus" hypothesis. Currently, we know that internal migration to rural areas increased in some countries during 2020, although not with the intensity speculated by the media. However, little is known about the attributes of rural areas attracting migrants, demographic composition of migration inflows, and if counterurbanisation movements persisted over 2021. Drawing on administrative population register data, we analysed the main types of rural areas pulling internal migrants in Spain and their demographic characteristics, namely age, sex and place of birth during 2020 and 2020, using the period 2016-2019 as a benchmark. Our results show that in-migration increased in rural areas close to cities and with high prevalence of second homes during 2020, while out-migration declined. Exceptionally high inflows persisted over 2021, but outflows converged to figures observed prior to the pandemic. Inflows to rural areas comprised internal migrants across a wide age spectrum, from young adults and families to retired individuals. These flows also comprised foreign-born, particularly populations of a wide age range from Latin American countries.

Sensing global changes in local patterns of energy consumption in cities during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19, and the wider social and economic impacts that a global pandemic entails, led to unprecedented reductions in energy consumption globally. Whilst estimates of changes in energy consumption have emerged at the national scale, detailed sub-regional estimates to allow for global comparisons are less developed. Using night-time light satellite imagery from December 2019-June 2020 across 50 of the world's largest urban conurbations, we provide high resolution estimates (450 m2) of spatio-temporal changes in urban energy consumption in response to COVID-19. Contextualising this imagery with modelling based on indicators of mobility, stringency of government response, and COVID-19 rates, we provide novel insights into the potential drivers of changes in urban energy consumption during a global pandemic. Our results highlight the diversity of changes in energy consumption between and within cities in response to COVID-19, moderating dominant narratives of a shift in energy demand away from dense urban areas. Further modelling highlights how the stringency of the government's response to COVID-19 is likely a defining factor in shaping resultant reductions in urban energy consumption.

Understanding patterns of internal migration during the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain.

Existing empirical work has analysed the impacts of COVID-19 on mortality, fertility and international migration. Less is known about the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced the patterns of internal migration. Anecdotal reports of mass migration from large cities to less populated areas have emerged, but lack of data has prevented empirically assessing this hypothesis. Drawing on geographically granular administrative population register data, we aim to analyse the extent of change in the patterns of internal migration across the urban hierarchy in Spain during 2020. Our results show a decline of 2.5% in the number of internal migration moves, particularly during the early stages of the pandemic, returning to pre-pandemic levels in late 2020. Results also reveal unusually large net migration losses in core cities and net migration gains in rural areas. Net migration losses in cities and gains in rural areas particularly accumulated following the elimination of the strict lockdown measures in June. Yet, these net losses and gains trended to pre-pandemic levels in late 2020, and movements between cities, and between cities and suburbs, continued to dominate the internal migration system. Thus, while the COVID-19 pandemic exerted notable changes in the geographic balance of internal migration flows, these changes appear to have been temporary and did not significantly alter the existing structures of the national migration system.

A city of cities: Measuring how 15-minutes urban accessibility shapes human mobility in Barcelona.

As cities expand, human mobility has become a central focus of urban planning and policy making to make cities more inclusive and sustainable. Initiatives such as the "15-minutes city" have been put in place to shift the attention from monocentric city configurations to polycentric structures, increasing the availability and diversity of local urban amenities. Ultimately they expect to increase local walkability and increase mobility within residential areas. While we know how urban amenities influence human mobility at the city level, little is known about spatial variations in this relationship. Here, we use mobile phone, census, and volunteered geographical data to measure geographic variations in the relationship between origin-destination flows and local urban accessibility in Barcelona. Using a Negative Binomial Geographically Weighted Regression model, we show that, globally, people tend to visit neighborhoods with better access to education and retail. Locally, these and other features change in sign and magnitude through the different neighborhoods of the city in ways that are not explained by administrative boundaries, and that provide deeper insights regarding urban characteristics such as rental prices. In conclusion, our work suggests that the qualities of a 15-minutes city can be measured at scale, delivering actionable insights on the polycentric structure of cities, and how people use and access this structure.